Media Decides 'Suburban Women' Suddenly Love GOP, Is Very Very Wrong

You gals weren't all that big on bodily autonomy, were you?

Oh boy! Time for more Garbage Polling, with just days to go before the election! Daily Kos data nerd Kerry Elevald, who first brought attention to all the junky GOP polling that's been distorting national poll averages, is back with a brief dissection of a truly crap poll that the Wall Street Journal trumpeted as a huge setback for Democrats.

Previously: 'Red Wave' Narrative May Be Built On Crap Polling? Color Us Shocked.

According to the Journal's polling, white suburban women have allegedly had a complete change of heart on the generic congressional ballot, going from preferring a generic Democrat by 12 points in August to preferring Republicans by 15 points in their most recent poll, allegedly because of worries about the economy and inflation. That would be a 27-point swing, a massive shift in sentiment in just a bit over two months. If true, that could be terrible news for Democrats next week.

Spoiler warning: As you may have gathered, not very bloody likely. But let's see how dire the Journal wants readers to think the situation is for Democrats now that the price of frozen peas has outstripped any concerns about reproductive freedom:

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New York Times Will Have Its Red Wave If It Has To Make It Up Itself!

Good polling for Democrats in swing districts somehow means the GOP will take the House.

The New York Times sure knows how to be counterintuitive — to the point of not making any damn sense at all. For instance, in a story last Thursday on polling the Times and Siena College conducted in "four archetypal swing districts," the second paragraph soberly proclaims that the polling "offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy."

That sure sounds like bad news for Democrats, especially in those four bellwether districts. At least it sounds like bad news until you get to the third paragraph, which notes that the actual polling results show the Democratic candidates "were still tied or ahead in all four districts — three of which were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020." What's more, we learn in the 11th paragraph that although Biden's approval rating "does not top 44 percent in any" of the four districts, the four Democrats who currently hold the seats are "running ahead of the president’s poor ratings."

Good thing for those four candidates that they aren't Joe Biden, isn't it?

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'Red Wave' Narrative May Be Built On Crap Polling? Color Us Shocked.

Dems may be on to something if Fox News is calling this a 'conspiracy theory.'

in the final weeks of the 2022 midterm campaign, national polling averages appear to show a number of close races for the House and Senate tilting toward likely Republican wins. Very serious analysis pieces attempt to explain what's going on in the national mood — maybe it's Republicans deciding to stick with their party as the election gets nearer? People getting tired of hearing about abortion rights? Anger over declining gas prices, maybe?

Or perhaps the polling averages are being skewed by a lot of garbage data from GOP-friendly polling groups that have injected polling results that don't have much to do with actual voter opinion. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg notes on Twitter that there appears to be a "ferocious" GOP effort to "flood the zone with their polls, game the averages, declare the election is tipping to them." He says that while it's entirely possible for Republicans to win in many of the elections next weeks, the polling and early turnout numbers so far suggest there's not really any sudden shift to the GOP — especially not if there's strong turnout by young voters.

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2022 midterms

Yes, Oklahoma And Other Red States Have Higher Violent Crime. It's A Fact, KEVIN.

It's the gun laws, dummies.

Joy Hofmeister, the Democratic running for governor in Oklahoma, said something OUTRAGEOUS during her debate Wednesday with incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt:

"So let’s talk about facts: The fact is, the rates of violent crime are higher in Oklahoma under your watch than in New York or California," Hoffmeister said. "That's a fact." She's the state superintendent of public schools, and she has done her homework on this.

The claim was so obviously impossible that Stitt had to snort-laugh, interrupt Hoffmeister (twice) and point in disbelief at his Democratic challenger. It was also true, as the Washington Post pointed out (free gift link):

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Oklahoma has a homicide rate of 9 deaths per 100,000, compared with California’s rate of 6.1 and New York’s rate of 4.7.

Yep, Oklahoma's murder rate is nearly double that of New York. That's the sort of thing you probably ought to have good information on if you're the governor of the state with more violent crime.

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